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Research: 99942 Apophis (2004 MN4) predicted earth encounter dates wrong?



Research Project 99942 Apophis (2004 MN4)
Orbit Diagram
Note: Make sure you have Java enabled on your browser to see the applet. This applet is provided as a 3D orbit visualization tool. The applet was implemented using 2-body methods, and hence should not be used for determining accurate long-term trajectories (over several years or decades) or planetary encounter circumstances. For accurate long-term ephemerides, please instead use our Horizons system.
Orbit Viewer

Additional Notes: the orbits shown in the applet are color coded. The planets are white lines, and the asteroid/comet is a blue line. The bright white line indicates the portion of the orbit that is above the ecliptic plane, and the darker portion is below the ecliptic plane. Likewise for the asteroid/comet orbit, the light blue indicates the portion above the ecliptic plane, and the dark blue the portion below the ecliptic plane.

Orbit Viewer applet originally written and kindly provided by Osamu Ajiki (AstroArts), and further modified by Ron Baalke (JPL).

2012
By Bookofresearch - June 19 2012

Data of 2012
99942 Apophis (2004 MN4) Close approache


Closest Approach Dates: 2012 Earth distance Sun Distance
Dec 28, 2012 Earth distance 0.1 AU (= 14 959 800 km) Sun distance 1.013 AU
Jan 9 2013 Earth distance 0.0966 AU Sun distance 1.043 AU
March 6 2021 Earth distance 0.11 AU Sun distance 1.092 AU
April, 15 2029 Earth distance 0.0224 AU Sun distance 0.997 AU
Dec 21-25, 2035 Earth distance 0.105 AU Sun distance 0.971 AU
April 10-13, 2037 Earth distance 0.194 AU Sun distance 0.978 AU
     
1 AU = ~150 million kilometers | Exact: 149.597.870.691 km
1 LD = Lunar Distance = ~384,000 kilometers | Exact: 3.844 × 10^5 km = 0.00257 AU
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/ca/


According the latest data;
the earliest close approach would be dec 28 2012, Earth distance 0.1 AU
and the closest approach on
Jan 9 2013 Earth distance 0.0966 AU
| Live coverage

December 28 2012 - Earliest Close Appoach
Jan 9 2013 - Closest Approach

Asteroid Apophis Animation - 1/9/2013
Slooh Asteroid Apophis Event - 1/9/2013 - Live from Canary Islands - Animation
Asteroid Apophis - named after the Egyptian demonic serpent-spirit of destruction - will fly by Earth on 1/9. In 2029, Apophis will fly by at only 30,000km and in 2036 there is a 1 in 250,000 chance it could hit Earth. Slooh to cover live from Canary Islands.




2011

By Bookofresearch - February 25 2011

First of all, im not an expert on this topic or making any claims, im just trying to figure this out and hope to get some input from those who have more knowledge on this than i have ..

Last Friday (feb 25, 2011) i was checking Apophis's orbit and noticed that the predicted dates for Apophis earth encounters (2029 and 2036) might be wrong (?)

Apophis orbit diagram with close encounter dates

Apophis became famous for its predicted earth encounters and possible impact risk in 2029 and 2036.

Approximate path of risk for 99942 Apophis (2004 MN4) in 2036


Now watch the data below.

There will be a close approach (compared to the other distances) on april 14, 2029 but non in 2036 (twice in 2035) but the earliest close approach according JPL Small-Body Database Browser is Dec 26, 2012 and another one on Jan 02 2013 and the closest approach on Jan 09 2013 !

So whats the hype about 2029 and 2036 and why is the earliest; Dec 26, 2012, Jan 02 2013 and the closest; Jan 09 2013 never mentioned??
Also, whats so “close” about these distances that they might cause a possible risk? And if its a risk shouldn't the date be Jan 09, 2013 instead of 2029 and sure not 2036?

You can check it out for yourself here:
99942 Apophis (2004 MN4) Close approaches

Data of 2011
99942 Apophis (2004 MN4) Close approache

Closest Approach Dates: 2011 Earth distance Sun Distance
Dec 26, 2012 Earth distance 0.1 AU (= 14 959 800 km) Sun distance 1.008 AU
Jan 02, 2013 Earth distance 0.11 AU (= 16 455 780 km) Sun distance 1.077 AU
Jan 09, 2013 Earth distance 0.0965 AU Sun distance 1.051 AU
Feb 05, 2013 Earth distance 0.126 AU (= 18 849 348 km) Sun distance 1.087 AU
Apr 2021 (close)    
April, 14 2029 Earth distance 0.143 AU (= 21 392 514 km) Sun distance 1.001 AU
Dec 24, 2035 Earth distance 0.114 AU Sun distance 0.966 AU
Dec 31, 2035 Earth distance 0.12 AU Sun distance 0.987 AU
Apr 12, 2037 Earth distance 0.183 AU Sun distance 0.977 AU
Jan 01, 2044 Earth distance 0.1845 AU Sun distance 1.018 AU
     
Venus:    
May 12, 2038    
June 12, 2038    
     

1 AU = ~150 million kilometers | Exact: 149.597.870.691 km
1 LD = Lunar Distance = ~384,000 kilometers | Exact: 3.844 × 10^5 km = 0.00257 AU
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/ca/

- Apophis Published Paper (2008)
- Accurate long-term ephemerides
Asteroid Apophis orbit from recent observations , EPSC Abstracts Vol. 6, EPSC-DPS2011-1212, 2011, EPSC-DPS Joint Meeting 2011




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Links
99942 Apophis
Predicting Apophis ' Earth Encounters in 2029 and 2036
Apophis (2004 MN4)Impact Risk
Apophis (2004 MN4) Orbit Diagram
Apophis Orbital Prediction Page at NASA JPL

Asteroid Apophis orbit from recent observations , EPSC Abstracts Vol. 6, EPSC-DPS2011-1212, 2011, EPSC-DPS Joint Meeting 2011

Risk assessment
- Apophis Orbital Prediction Page at NASA JPL
- 2004 MN 4 page and 2004 MN 4 impactor table from NEODyS
- Near-Earth Asteroid 2004 MN4 Reaches Highest Score To Date On Hazard Scale (Near Earth Object Program Office - December 23, 2004)

NASA
- Possibility of an Earth Impact in 2029 Ruled Out for Asteroid 2004 MN 4 (JPL)
- Radar Observations Refine the Future Motion of Asteroid 2004 MN 4 (JPL)
- Animation explaining how impact risk is determined from Impact Probability


Meaning of the name Apophis

In the News:
Jan 9 2013 'Doomsday' asteroid Apophis more massive than first thought

Live Coverage
Event Live Coverage